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Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly MACD Trying to Negatively Cross


Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is breaking below a 2 month triangle support line (on the daily chart) today, and at risk this week of breaking below triangle support (on the weekly chart).  Significantly, the weekly MACD appears to be trying to negatively cross, with its histogram approaching zero.  Nevertheless, with the daily and 4hr RSI and Stochastics becoming oversold, there is a decent chance BTCUSD will bounce later today or tomorrow back into the daily chart triangle before forming a lower high.  A more decisive break of the weekly chart's triangle support this week will likely trigger a major downturn.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly/Daily/4hr



Click here for today's technical analysis on Ripple, Litecoin
 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15993




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (January 16)


MARKET

The Chinese stocks picked up the upward momentum and advanced 0.77%. The strongest yuan in more than two years is prompting speculation about possible steps to cool its gains. While airline shares slides as oil holds near three-year high. Real Estate and Agriculture sector led the gains; while Oil and Electronic Component sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 534.9 bn, down 8.15% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3436.59

0.77

266.58

3.91

Shenzhen

11386.91

0.70

268.71

3.14

CSI 300

4258.47

0.79

228.27

5.65

ChiNext

1729.60

-0.17

57.84

-1.32

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Real Estate

001979

Agriculture

603363

Downward-leading

           Oil

600688

Electronic Component

300545

 

NEWS

*Geely to Use Volvo’s Europe Plants to Manufacture New Car Brand. Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd. and its Volvo Cars unit will make Lynk & Co vehicles at Volvo plants in Europe, according to one company executive. Details of the plan will be unveiled this year, according to Geely CEO An Conghui, who also said the automaker is considering setting up its own factory on the continent in the future. Geely acquired Sweden’s Volvo in 2010, and launched the new Lynk & Co brand last year as part of its effort to move into foreign markets. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

FUND FLOW

 

 


15994




Macro

EUROPEAN MARKET OUTLOOK: 1st Drop for JPY In 6 Days; USD/CNY Fix Highest Since Dec 2015


Morning Briefing - January 16th 2018


Inflation data dominates in Europe Tuesday, with final December numbers expected in both Germany and Italy, with UK numbers also set for release.

The European calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the publication of the German wholesale prices and final December inflation data at  0700GMT.

At 0900GMT, Italian final December inflation numbers will cross the wires.

UK consumer and producer price inflation will be published at 0930GMT.

UK inflation is seen receding away from the five-and-a-half-year high recorded in November and back to within the Bank of England's inflation target remit according to a preliminary survey of analysts. Core inflation is also seen easing by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% while RPI is seen unchanged at 3.9%.

Of particular focus will be air fares and sales of recreational goods, which largely drove CPI hitting the highest level since March 2012 in November.

Input PPI is expected to have abated in November, after a month of better health for sterling, although elevated fuel prices may offset this. Input PPI is seen falling from 7.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. Despite this, there is not expected to be any pass through to Output PPI which is placed level with November's 3.0% y/y
showing.

At the same time, the ONS House Price Index will be released.

Back from the long holiday weekend, the US data calendar will kick off at 1330GMT, with the publication of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The Empire State index is expected to hold steady after at 18.0 after falling to that point in the previous month

At the same time, the Canadian non-residential building investment.

The NY Fed survey of consumer expectations will cross the wire at 1600GMT.

Back in Europe, at 1700GMT, SNB Board member Thomas Jordan is slated to speak, in Zurich.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 up 183.6 points at 23898.34 - ASX 200 down 22.781 points at 6054.3 - Shanghai Comp. up 10.31 points at 3420.798 - JGB 10-Yr future up 2 ticks at 150.49, JGB 10-Yr yield down 0.2bp at 0.075% - Aussie 3-Yr future down 1.5 ticks at 97.8, yield up 0.9bp at 2.147% - Aussie 10-Yr future down 0.5 ticks at 97.23, yield down 0.1bp at 2.77% - US 10-Yr future up 1 ticks at 122.31, US 10-Yr yield down 0.37bp at 2.5425%

AUSSIE BONDS: The AOFM announces the issue by syndication of a new 2.75% 21 November 2029 Treasury Bond. The initial issue will be of a benchmark size. (An ANZ note yesterday estimated a sale size of A$8bln). - Initial price guidance for the issue is a spread of 7 to 10 basis points over the implied bid yield for the primary ten-year Treasury Bond futures contract. - The issue is expected to be priced on Wednesday, 17 January 2018 and settle on Thursday, 25 January 2018.- Citi, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG Australia Branch will act as Joint-Lead Managers for the issue. - The AOFM note they will be mindful of the performance of the bond when considering the timing of future issuance.

STOCKS: Stocks in Asia are mixed on Tuesday, the broad really seen in Asia-Pac stocks taking a break. In Japan the Nikkei 225  is up 130 points at 23,845, the index opened flat and ground higher throughout the session benefitting from a weaker yen as USD/JPY rose 35 pips on the session to 110.89 after Japanese FinMin Aso said that USD/JPY at 110.80 was not an issue, but did warn against large FX moves. This is the first day in 6 that the yen has weakened against the dollar.  In China the Shanghai Comp is up 10 points, the Hang Seng resumes its rally up 349 points and hitting the highest levels since 2015. US futures are in positive territory as they return from the MLK day holiday.

JGBS AUCTION: The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y1.786 of 0.10% 5-Year bonds, issue #134, total sale size Y2.2tln - Average Yield: -0.084% (prev. -0.104%); Average Price: 100.91 (prev. 101.03)  - High Yield: -0.082% (prev. -0.102%); Low Price: 100.90 (prev. 101.02)  - Allotted at High Yield: 8.975% (prev. 83.4736%) - Bid/Cover: 5.236 (prev. 4.381)

OIL: WTI is slightly higher in Asia-Pac trade on Tuesday, the benchmark last up $0.19 at $64.49. Meanwhile Brent is down $0.28 at $69.98, seeing some profit taking after rising to the highest level since June 2015. WTI has actually come off levels seen late in European trade on Monday (circa $64.83), however there was no settlement in the US on Monday due to the MLK holiday. Aside from the recent spate of inventory drawdowns, a weaker USD has helped buoy crude prices.

GOLD: Gold is slightly higher in Asia-Pac trade, the yellow metal last up $1.22 at $1,341.20. - There are still some geopolitical tensions supporting gold after Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said on Monday that Russia would not support any action by Washington to change the Iran nuclear deal. - Gold also buffeted by competing headlines about a potential stop gap deal for Government funding beyond the January 19 ceiling.

FOREX: USD/JPY was the main mover in Asia on Tuesday, last up 36 pips at 110.89 off session highs at 110.98. The move was mainly driven by a slight bounce in US dollar at the start of Asia trade on reports of a US stop gap funding bill, however at these levels DXY is holding near 3-Year lows, last at 90.503. Some comments from Japanese FinMin Aso also helped weaken the yen from 4-month highs, Aso said that USD/JPY at 110.80 was no big deal and that sudden moves in FX were a concern, which sparked some concern of intervention after a 2.7% drop in USD/JPY in the last 8 days. MNI sources noted demand from Japanese macro funds in the pair, with offers ahead of the 111.00 handle on option related selling. - PBOC set USD/CNY parity at 6.4372, the strongest since Dec. 11, 2015. The strength in the yuan is being driven by dollar weakness. Talk is now turning to where the line in the sand is for USD/CNY before intervention is on the cards, with one MNI bank source seeing 6.40 as the key level. - A fairly sizable range for the Asia timezone.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (H18) 160.80 Resistance Remains Key


*RES 4: 162.04 High Jan 8
*RES 3: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*RES 2: 160.80 Alternating support/resistance
*RES 1: 160.76 High Jan 15


*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.45


*SUP 1: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12
*SUP 2: 159.97 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28
*SUP 4: 158.73 2017 Low Mar 14


*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 100-DMA (161.83) sees focus on 159.78. Bears now look for a close below 159.78 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. The lack of follow through Friday is an issue with daily studies at O/S levels and the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls still need a close above 160.80 to gain breathing room and above 162.37 to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.

 

EUROSTOXX50: 3570.51 & 3642.10 Levels Key

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance
*RES 3: 3648.65 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance
*RES 1: 3629.73 2018 High Jan 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3611.81

*SUP 1: 3598.72 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5
*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support
*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 3642.1 resistance is less than ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on tests of 2017 highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside following the recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3492.87) in past weeks. Bears continue to look for a close below 3570.51 to shift focus back to 2018 lows so far.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close



 

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15991




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (January 15)


MARKET

Chinese stocks gauge closed lower, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3410.49 points. The Chinese stocks gauge terminated the eleven days rally and dived during the last 30 minutes of trading today. Weighted stocks kept up the uptrend but small caps dived. Resources shares retreated, as lithium shares crushed due to market’s concern about technology upgrade. Moreover, ChiNext recorded a 5 month low today. Bank and Non-bank Financial sector led the gains; while Military and Coal sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 582.3 bn, up 26.33% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3410.49

-0.54

286.36

3.12

Shenzhen

11307.46

-1.35

299.37

2.42

CSI 300

4225.24

0.01

234.99

4.82

ChiNext

1732.62

-2.97

66.64

-1.14

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Bank

000001

Non-bank Financial

601601

Downward-leading

           Military    

600760

Coal

601011

 

NEWS

*Renminbi strengthens 0.6% as China’s central bank flags drop in liquidity. China’s renminbi firmed as much as 0.6 per cent to the strongest level in more than two years on Monday as the country’s central bank loaned out nearly Rmb400bn ($62.2bn) in response to what it described as a “relatively large” decrease in the banking system’s liquidity. (Financial Times)

*China injects net 50 billion Yuan into banking system via reverse repurchase agreements. China's central bank will sell 80 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase agreements, and 70 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase agreements in the open market today. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15990




Technical Analysis

Silver (SI) Bounces Off Prior 3 Month Downchannel Resistance


Silver (SI | YI) bounced more than 1% Friday off an upchannel/ascending wedge support line (on the 4hr chart), and appears poised to continue playing catchup today to Gold (GC | YG)'s stronger recent performance.  Significantly, YI's rebound Friday was also off the psychologically key 17 whole figure level and continues offering bulls potential upside today towards the 4hr chart's upchannel/wedge resistance.  The weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD in the attached chart do not have enough history to provide meaningful information, but an analysis of the 10yr monthly and 5yr weekly chart (w/ RSI, Stochastics and MACD) from stockcharts.com (search symbol $Silver) provides confirmation of YI's increasingly bullish long term momentum.  I am looking to enter long today in the green zone (of the daily chart) and targeting the red zone for mid week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

Silver (CME SI | ICE YI Mar18) Weekly/Daily/4hr



Click here for today's technical analysis on Cocoa, Gold
 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15989




1 2 3 4 5 2 753

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