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Crypto

Bitcoin Suisse: If You Blink You'll Miss It


Market Update

19th May, 2019 Since we left our last briefing we’ve seen Bitfinex raise USD 1bn in a 10 day private funding raise to plug its liquidity gap at the centre of the New York Attorney General’s court order and the Trump/China trade war intensifying a sell-off in traditional markets.  Although opaque, it is plausible to suggest some flows have entered BTC as a non-correlated asset to stock markets, particularly from the Chinese where the government has continuously tried to prevent people from selling Yuan in order to move funds out of the country. [1]

Price action in May has seen the bulls grab the popcorn as BTC broke the USD 6,400 resistance level, a key level for the favoured short positions built throughout April’s 35% positive price action. The large scale purchasing of BTC to liquidate the shorts sent the No.1 cryptocurrency by market cap through USD 8,000 and eventually peaking around the USD 8,400 level.

Blue: BTCUSD Short Positions on Bitfinex / Yellow: BTCUSD Long Positions on Bitfinex

At the time of writing BTC is above USD 8,000, however, reading between the lines and at the blink of an eye you may have missed an 18% drop to USD 6,250 on Thursday. A large sell order executed on the Bitstamp exchange around 3am UTC effectively cleaned out the order book resulting in the liquidation of USD 250m of long positions on another exchange, BitMEX. The reason for the mass liquidation was due to the calculation of the BTC index price on BitMEX being 50% weighted to the Bitstamp exchange price of BTC.[2]   

BTC might be coming of age in 2019, with more complex rhetoric, less concerns of fraud, and talk of the future rather than past [3] , however, one-sided trades can cause complacency. After a quick recovery of BTC to trade back above USD 8,000 our support and resistance levels remain as previous to Thursday’s whale trap.

A final glance to the Bitfinex exchange, as of our last commentary BTC was being traded up to a 6% premium due to concerns about Bitfinex’s USD liquidity highlighted by the New York Attorney General’s announcement in April. At the time of writing BTC is now trading at a slight discount on Bitfinex, a sign of maturity in how less favourable news is being analysed and absorbed than times past but also a highlight to inefficiencies of price discovery.

Blue: BTCUSD on Bitfinex / Orange: BTCUSD on Bitstamp

1.1.1 Institutional News

As BTC rallied up to USD 8k the CME declared its BTC futures product had recorded it’s new all-time high of 33.7k, the third time this year a new all time high for contracts sold in a day. Whereas CME futures are cash settled, Bakkt, the first regulated BTC settled futures exchange owned by the Intercontinental Exchange announced its long waited launch is planned for July.
Meanwhile Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund reported it’s April inflow of plus USD 58.2m, almost as high as the USD 60.8m in December 2017. The first Annual Crypto Hedge Fund report published by PwC and Elwood Asset Management found that while 2018 saw a 72 per cent fall in the price of BTC, the median crypto hedge fund returned -46% over the same period. An indication that managers were successfully able to outperform their benchmark with quantitative funds overperforming fundamental and discretionary funds.  The report was conducted on the 100 largest global crypto hedge funds by AuM. [4]

Written by Richard Wynn, Institutional Services and Sandro Huwyler, Trade Desk of Bitcoin Suisse AG

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This publication has been prepared by Bitcoin Suisse AG. The publication is solely for information purposes and should not be considered investment advice and nothing in this publication shall imply any elements of a contractual relationship nor any offering. While the information contained herein is believed to be true and accurate and the sources are believed to be reliable, Bitcoin Suisse AG does not make any warranties as to its accuracy or completeness.

The information provided is not intended for use by or distribution to any individual or legal entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to the law or regulatory provisions or in which Bitcoin Suisse AG does not hold the necessary registration or license.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2019/05/15/fear-drives-chinese-to-buy-bitcoin/#46e538505e31

[2] https://ww.theblockcrypto.com/tiny/bitcoin-price-on-bitstamp-crashed-by-nearly-20-in-11-minutes/

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/why-is-bitcoin-surging-alternative-data-shows-it-s-grown-up

[4] https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/financial-services/fintech/assets/pwc-elwood-2019-annual-crypto-hedge-fund-report.pdf

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TRADING IN BITCOIN FUTURES IS ESPECIALLY RISKY AND IS ONLY FOR CLIENTS WITH A HIGH RISK TOLERANCE AND THE FINANCIAL ABILITY TO SUSTAIN LOSSES. More information about the risk of trading Bitcoin products can be found on the IBKR website. If you’re new to bitcoin, or futures in general, download The Beginners Guide to Bitcoin Futures.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Bitcoin Suisse and is being posted with Bitcoin Suisse’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of Bitcoin Suisse, and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24030




Stocks

Edison - UK Sparks: Marks & Spencer Profits Fall 9.9%


Marks & Spencer has announced a 9.9% fall in full-year pre-tax profits before adjusting items to £523m on revenues down 3% at £10.4bn. Adjusting items of £439m include £222m for the “acceleration and extension” of the company’s UK store closure programme. Statutory pre-tax profits increased by 27% to £84m, while a final dividend of 7.1p reduces the total dividend by 26% to 13.9p. Separately, the group announced a £571m rights issue at 185p per share to fund its new joint venture with Ocado Group. Chief executive Steve Rowe says: “Whilst there are green shoots, we have not been consistent in our delivery in a number of areas of the business.  M&S is changing faster than at any time in my career.” He adds that the company remains “on track” with its transformation programme.

Royal Mail has revealed a fall in full-year adjusted pre-tax profits from £565m to £398m on revenues up from £10.2bn to £10.6bn. Statutory pre-tax profits increased from £212m to £241m. The results announcement includes “ambitions” to deliver an adjusted operating profit margin of more than 4% in 2021-22, increasing to more than 5% in 2023-24. The group says it will invest £1.8bn in its UK postal business over the next five years.

As part of the “turnaround and grow” programme, the dividend will be “rebased” and the dividend policy changed. The 2018-19 total dividend increases by 1p to 25p. However, from 2019-20, the policy will be for a full year “dividend underpin” of 15p, which may be supplemented by additional payouts in years with substantial excess cashflow.

Energy group SSE suffered a 38% fall in full-year adjusted pre-tax profits to £726m after a £285m operating loss at its energy trading business. The group warns that the energy sector is under a “huge degree of uncertainty,” amidst Labour Party  plans to nationalise utilities. Separately, it has named Katie Bickerstaffe as executive chair of SSE Energy Services, with a mandate to “deliver a future outside the SSE group”.

Aerospace and defence group Babcock International has unveiled a slight rise in full-year “headline profits” from £513m to £518m on revenues down from £5.36bn to £5.16bn.

Finally, Trainline Investments Holdings, the internet travel tickets company, has confirmed plans for a stock market flotation. Chief executive Clare Gilmartin says: “Trainline is the clear leader in the online rail ticket market in the United Kingdom and we believe that we are therefore well positioned to capitalise on mobile and e-ticketing, which are changing the way consumers plan and purchase travel.”

Andrew Cave

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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.  Visit www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com for more information.

Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Our research is a marketing communication as defined by the FCA, this communication only contains information that is an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under COBS2.3A19(5).

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24029




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (May 22)


MARKET

Chinese stocks keep up downward momentum, the turbulence in currency, continuously lead investor to reassess the odds of deal between the two largest economies. Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co. is trading at its lowest since Jan. 4 as the U.S. considers curbs on component buying for as many as five Chinese companies. IT and Telecom sectors led the gains, while Non-ferrous Metal and Construction sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 466.2 billion, down 2.1% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2891.70

-0.49

193.63

15.95

Shenzhen

9041.22

-0.51

275.63

24.88

CSI 300

3649.38

-0.47

121.78

21.22

ChiNext

1488.63

-0.34

82.77

19.04

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

IT

002512

Telecom

002104

Downward-leading

Non-ferrous Metal

600259

Construction

603388

 

NEWS   

*The U.S. is considering cutting off the flow of vital American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., widening the dragnet beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. (Bloomberg)

*Theresa May is facing pressure to abandon her Brexit deal and quit as British prime minister within days, according to people familiar with the matter. Several senior government officials said they were shocked that the premier’s new offer intended to win votes in Parliament for her European Union divorce agreement had been so badly received so quickly. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


24028




Macro

Eurex: Trade Situation Clouds


Morning Briefing May 22nd 2019

Wednesday is a busy day for the UK. At 09300BST, the ONS publishes data on inflation, public sector finances and producer price inflation while the release of data on retail sales in Canada at 1330BST is the highlight across the pond.

UK CPI is expected to increase by 0.7% m/m in April. Monthly inflation decelerated in March after a sharp increase of 1.3pp in February. Annual inflation is projected to rise by 2.2%, which would shift the series back to the 10-year average (2.2%), after holding steady at 1.9% for two months. Annual core inflation is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.1pp after remaining at 1.8% in March and February.

Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to rise significantly to GBP 5.2bn in April after a reading of GBP 0.8bn.

UK's output producer price inflation is expected to decelerate from 2.4% y/y in March to 2.3% y/y in April while PPI input is projected to grow 4.5% y/y after a reading of 3.7% y/y in the previous month.

Monthly Canadian retail sales grew by 0.8% in February while sales excluding autos, parts dealers, and gas stations rose by 0.6%. Both series are expected to accelerate in March and grow by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.

Highlights in terms of speeches and events in the US are St. Louis Fed's Bullard, NY Fed's Williams, Atlanta Fed's Bostic as well as the release of the FOMC meeting minutes with the following press conference. In Europe ECB President Mario Draghi and Chief Economist Peter Praet will be closely watched. Praet steps down on May 31.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

BOND SUMMARY: Early Asia-Pac trade saw Tsys draw some modest support after the NYT reported that "the Trump administration is considering limits to a Chinese video surveillance giant's ability to buy American technology, people familiar with the matter said, the latest attempt to counter Beijing's global economic ambitions. The move would effectively place the company, Hikvision, on a United States blacklist." This came after the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. noted that the door is still open re: further trade talks. In a BBG interview 2019 Fed voter Bullard suggested that the neutral rate is ~2%, so "if anything U.S rates are a bit restrictive." Bullard also noted that U.S. rates are in a good place. He alluded to the possibility of a rate cut even with the economy holding strong to assert that the Fed is serious re: inflation target & its asymmetric nature but suggested that such a move would be premature at present. T-Notes last 124-05, U.S. 10-Year cash Tsy yields last at 2.425%. - JGB +2 ticks on a stellar 20-Year auction, which promoted curve flattening. - Little to pen for the Aussie Bond space today outside of the lower fix in 3-Month BBSW. Bond futures and Bills trade around unchanged levels.

STOCKS: The major Asia-Pacific equity benchmarks trade marginally mixed, as questions over the U.S.-China trade spat continue to hang over the region after the NYT reported that "the Trump administration is considering limits to a Chinese video surveillance giant's ability to buy American technology, people familiar with the matter said, the latest attempt to counter Beijing's global economic ambitions. The move would effectively place the company, Hikvision, on a United States blacklist. It also would mark the first time the Trump administration punished a Chinese company for its role in the surveillance and mass detention of Uighurs, a mostly Muslim ethnic minority." - This came after the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. noted that the door is still open re: further trade talks. - Nikkei 225 +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.2%, CSI 300 unch., ASX 200 -0.1%. - S&P 500 index futures +1, DJIA futures +8, NASDAQ 100 futures -1.

OIL: WTI trades around $0.55 below settlement at writing, with Brent $0.45 worse off. - Reports pointing to a surprise headline crude build in the latest API inventory estimate twinned with a build in gasoline stocks has weighed on the space. Reports also suggested that stocks at Cushing edged higher, while distillate stocks reportedly experienced a mild drawdown. - Elsewhere, the Saudi cabinet has noted that it will do everything it can to avoid any war re: the recent rise in tensions in the Gulf, and affirmed the country's commitment to achieving a balanced, stable oil market. - The date for the restart of Russia's Druzhba pipeline remains an unknown, while Tuesday saw news that Nigeria's Forcados pipeline was shut on Monday, owing to a fire nearby. - The weekly DoE inventory data headlines on Wednesday.

GOLD: Gold is virtually unchanged at $1,274/oz. - An uptick in risk sentiment pushed the yellow metal below trend line support on Tuesday, with bears targeting the YtD low at $1,266.42 to open the way lower. Bulls still look for a reclaim of $1,300 to recapture some momentum.

FOREX: G10 FX crosses respected fairly narrow ranges overnight, while risk appetite struggled for clear direction. - A combination of the APRA's suggestion that it considers raising capital requirements on some financial institutions wounded the Antipodeans, before further pressure came from a NYT story noting that the U.S. weighs what amounts to blacklisting China's Hikvision. NZD ended up as the worst G10 performer, with NZD/USD touching new YtD lows. - GBP marginally outperformed, but still traded far from yesterday's highs. - Fed's Bullard said that the FOMC might have "slightly overdone it" by delivering a rate hike in December, while BoJ's Harada noted that the planned sales tax hike could push Japanese economy into recession.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (M9) PULLBACK EXTENDS

Bund futures remain on the back foot with the pullback extending as far as 166.33 yesterday before stabilising. Bears now look to take out yesterday's low to build further downside momentum towards the May 10,8 lows at 165.94/92. Below here would open the 55-dma at 165.37. Bulls need to recover Monday's high at 167.07 to return the focus to the May 15/17 highs at 167.41/44.


EUROSTOXX50: BEARS HAVE THE EDGE

Eurostoxx failed to recover its 55-dma yesterday around the 3400 level keeping the near term outlook negative and the focus on the May 13 low at 3311.17. Below here would bring the March 25 low, 200-dma, and March 8 low at 3281.79/3273.48/3273.68 back into play. Bulls need an upside break above the 21-dma to open the April 24 ytd highs at 3515.15 ahead of the July 31, 2018 highs.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24027




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Natural Gas (NG) Forming Weekly Gravestone Ahead of Weekly Storage


Natural Gas (NG) Forming Weekly Gravestone Ahead of Weekly Storage

Natural Gas (NG) slid more than 2% yesterday on profittaking, and is now in today's Asia morning testing an uptrend support line (on the 4hr chart).  Significantly, NG is forming a weekly Gravestone reflecting reluctance to push higher the balance of this week...Click here to read the full analysis of this market as well as on WTI Crude, Arabica Coffee

 

Natural Gas (CME NG Jun19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

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Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


24026




1 2 3 4 5 2 2166

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