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Macro

BlackRock - The Bumpy Ride to Brexit


Richard explains why investors in UK assets should expect a bumpy ride as UK-EU Brexit negotiations unfold.

The UK’s new Brexit white paper should allow negotiations over the terms of its future relationship with the European Union (EU) to move forward. Yet we could see UK-EU relations deteriorating before improving. Investors in UK assets should expect a bumpy ride.

                                       

Our BlackRock Growth GPS for the UK shows growth expectations have only modestly recovered from the heavy blow the Brexit vote dealt to the UK economy. See the blue line above. Meanwhile, our UK Inflation GPS (green line) shows inflation ticking lower but remaining much higher than before the Brexit vote, mostly due to a weaker British pound pushing up import prices. UK growth has been significantly lagging the rest of the G7, but may have recovered enough to allow the Bank of England to raise rates in August, we believe. Subdued growth combined with elevated inflation is typically a challenging backdrop for risk assets. UK stocks have been resilient recently, aided by domestic stocks’ global orientation and an M&A uptick. Yet political uncertainty looks set to stay elevated in the second half.

Our Brexit base case

The UK’s Brexit proposal would see the country effectively retaining full access to the EU single market for goods but losing access for services. It is closer to a “soft Brexit” than many had anticipated, angering some in the pro-Brexit camp. The proposal reflects the UK government’s gradual realization that any alternative would be highly disruptive for the manufacturing sector and would leave issues surrounding its land border with EU member Ireland unresolved. The UK has shifted its stance on previously non-negotiable issues, such as accepting alignment with European regulations and judicial rulings. This allows talks to move forward for now. Yet there’s a major unresolved problem: The EU has stated that “cherry-picking” EU-membership principles to abide by would be unacceptable.

We see Brexit noise getting louder as the March 2019 date for the UK’s exit nears. The EU will need to decide if it’s willing to accept a tailored agreement. The alternative is forcing the UK to choose between a limited free-trade deal or full adherence to the EU’s four freedoms, including free movement of people, at the risk of a negotiation breakdown. Our base case: Pressure to avoid a no-deal outcome leads to a compromise later this year. We expect an extended transition period starting in March 2019, with key future-relationship decisions kicked down the road. We see nearer-term wildcards too, such as a possible leadership contest in the UK’s ruling Conservative Party.

Key to weathering the Brexit noise

Greater resiliency in portfolios is key amid Brexit volatility and other risks (see our midyear outlook). We are underweight UK equities, and favor overseas earners that can benefit from faster-growing economies and currency weakness. We would avoid UK banks, which tend to be sensitive to Brexit news. We prefer U.S. and emerging market (EM) equities on higher earnings growth. We do not expect UK government bond yields to rise materially amid political uncertainty. We see UK real estate fundamentals staying strong, but focus on the highest-quality assets. We expect the pound to be volatile, with potential downward pressure until a Brexit resolution nears.

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Richard Turnill is BlackRock’s global chief investment strategist. He is a regular contributor to The Blog

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of July 2018 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

©2018 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

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Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. 


19202




Futures

Blue Line Futures - 2 Minute Drill (Grains)


Corn and soybeans have been under pressure for nearly two straight months.  What is light at the end of the tunnel?

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures. Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others. Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.

You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures' permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19204




Futures

Blue Line Futures - 2 Minute Drill (Livestock)


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures. Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others. Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.

You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures' permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19205




Options

Cboe - Vol 411: Summer Lull


Traders are looking to the next 3 months for higher volatility. With host Michael Palmer.

 

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2018 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This video is from Cboe and is being posted with Cboe’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Cboe and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19203




Stocks

SGX - Market Updates


FTSE ST Small Cap Index Constituents With Highest ROE Levels

  • The FTSE ST Small Cap Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalisation-weighted index, which represents the performance of small-capitalised companies that trade on SGX Mainboard. The Index comprises 65 constituents with an average market capitalisation of S$750 million.
  • The 10 constituents of the FTSE ST Small Cap Index with the highest ROE levels, based on their most recent full-year financial results, have averaged an ROE of 30%. These 10 stocks are categorised to the industrials, consumer, energy, materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors.
  • The five constituents among the 10 with the highest ROEs are: COSCO Shipping International (62.0%), Best World (50.6%), Sheng Siong Group (26.7%), Geo Energy Resources (26.4%), and UMS Holdings (25.7%).

Return on equity (ROE), also known as return on net worth, measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much earnings a business generates with the money shareholders have invested. ROE is expressed as a percentage and calculated by dividing net income against shareholder's equity, which refers to the company’s net assets, or assets minus liabilities. The higher the ROE, the more efficient the company's operations are in making use of those funds.

However, note that if the value of shareholder equity falls, ROE gains. Thus, write-downs, share buybacks and high debt levels can artificially boost ROE levels. In addition, ROE comparisons are generally most meaningful among companies in the same industry, as some industries tend to have higher ROE levels than others.

The 10 constituents of the FTSE ST Small Cap Index with the highest ROE levels, based on their most recent full-year financial results, have averaged an ROE of 29.9%. These 10 stocks are categorised to the industrials, consumer, energy, materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors.

The five constituents among the 10 with the highest ROEs are: COSCO Shipping International (62.0%), Best World (50.6%), Sheng Siong Group (26.7%), Geo Energy Resources (26.4%), and UMS Holdings (25.7%). They are in the following industries – construction and heavy machinery, retail of personal care products, supermarket operations, coal mining and semiconductor equipment manufacturing.

The table below details the 10 constituents of the FTSE ST Small Cap Index with the highest ROEs in their latest reported financial year, sorted by ROE. Click on the stock name to view its profile in StockFacts.

 

Name

SGX Code

Index Weight %

Market Cap S$M

18 July Closing Price

Latest FY ROE %

Total Returns YTD %

Total Returns 1Y %

Total Returns 3Y %

P/E (x)

Dvd Ind Yld %

COSCO Shipping Intl

F83

1.5

795

0.355

62.0

-5.3

12.7

-21.1

17.6

N/A

Best World Intl

CGN

1.5

714

1.300

50.6

0.2

-0.4

1,528.2

13.8

3.2

Sheng Siong Group

OV8

2.0

1,639

1.090

26.7

19.9

13.9

43.1

23.1

3.0

Geo Energy

RE4

0.6

286

0.215

26.4

-18.9

-8.9

15.0

6.6

4.8

UMS Hldgs

558

1.3

456

0.850

25.7

-13.2

3.9

165.0

9.0

5.7

China Sunsine Chem

CH8

0.9

683

1.390

22.0

57.0

68.2

320.0

7.4

2.1

Hi-P Intl

H17

0.7

1,014

1.260

22.0

-30.7

49.2

193.4

8.1

19.8

Riverstone Hldgs

AP4

1.1

786

1.060

21.5

0.0

3.2

35.2

18.2

2.2

Q & M Dental

QC7

0.4

402

0.510

21.0

-15.8

-20.7

-31.4

16.6

2.2

HRnetGroup

CHZ

0.8

888

0.880

20.9

18.5

7.9

N/A

17.7

2.6

Source: Bloomberg & StockFacts as of 18 July 2018

The FTSE ST Small Cap Index is a free float-adjusted, market capitalisation-weighted index. It represents the performance of small-capitalised companies, which pass size, free float and liquidity screens, and trade on SGX Mainboard. The Index comprises 65 constituents with an average market capitalisation of S$750 million, and the range spans about S$100 million to slightly over S$2 billion.

The 10 largest constituents of the FTSE ST Small Cap Index account for about 40% of index weight, and represent the Real Estate sector. Nine of these constituents are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), while one is a real estate developer. Given the significant Real Estate weighting – with majority of the constituents being REITs – the Index maintains a relatively high average yield of about 4.0%, on par with the benchmark Straits Times Index’s (STI) yield.

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Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Singapore Exchange and is being posted with Singapore Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Singapore Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Disclosures

We appreciate your feedback. If you have any questions or comments about IB Traders' Insight please contact ibti@ibkr.com.

The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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